Nber business cycle dating committee members potassium argon dating how it works

As of Septemberwhen we decided that a trough had occurred in Junethe economy was still weak, with lingering high unemployment, but had expanded considerably from its trough 15 months earlier. We designated June as the trough, six months before the trough in employment, which is consistent with earlier trough dates in the NBER business-cycle chronology.According to the chronology, the most recent peak occurred in Marchending a record-long expansion that began in One reason for this is that the GDP data are subject to considerable revision.The previous expansion in the 1990s lasted 10 years, or 120 months.

The Fed is widely expected to cut a key interest rate when officials next meet Dec. The committee's determination puts an end to an expansion that began in late 2001 and latest 73 months.

GDP fell in the final quarter of 2007 but then rose in the first half of 2008 before falling again in the third quarter of this year.

Nevertheless the committee found that other key figures — including personal income, industrial production and wholesale sales -- all peaked between November 2007 and June 2008.

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, Iceland, June 18-19, 2004, hosted by Thorvaldur Gylfason at the University of Iceland, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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